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Over the last year, the World Health Organization (WHO) has been busy, in an unprecedented effort, to calculate the global death toll from COVID-19. This effort, however, has India’s health establishment up in arms. Globally from an estimated six million reported deaths, WHO now estimates these deaths to be closer to almost triple the number. India, deeply affected by successive COVID-19 waves, is not delighted with this revision.
Several news reports have pointed to a significant gap in India’s COVID-19 story — significantly under-reported mortality figures. The unreleased WHO estimates have been prepared by leading global experts but have left India’s health establishment perturbed, with its strong objections to these estimates.
Why? Because as in these figures, India would have had close to four times the COVID-19 deaths reported-a figure that varies highly from India’s previously self-reported figures. This would make India’s tally of COVID-19 deaths among the highest globally.
Not surprisingly, India is in serious disagreement with the WHO-prepared COVID-19 mortality estimates. In fact, its continued objections have been holding back the Global WHO Report. The argument being made by India’s health establishment through a public clarification is that this is an overestimation, and the methodology employed is incorrect.
The new estimates also take into account formerly uncounted deaths, but also deaths resulting from the impact of COVID-19. For example, millions who could not access care, i.e., diagnosis or treatment due to COVID-19 restrictions or from COVID-19 cases overwhelming health services.
The methodology for this estimation, led by global experts, is unlikely to be faulty. India’s disagreements with the methodology can be easily addressed through consultation. Also, the need to plump up India’s COVID-19 deaths unnecessarily would serve little or no purpose.
Why then this objection? A quick study of India’s COVID-19 response is insightful. India’s COVID-19 response has been replete with delays and denials. For instance, for the longest time that India’s COVID-19 number rose, the health establishment continued to insist that community transmission was not underway. It took months and several lakh cases before they agreed that COVID-19 was finally in community transmission.