Comprehension Passage

The Union Government's capital expenditure has been steadily increasing, budgeted to rise to 2.9% of GDP in FY23. More than 59.6% of the budgeted capital expenditure for FY23 has been spent from April to November 2022, showing a year-on-year growth of over 60%. This capital expenditure is seen as a counter-cyclical fiscal tool to strengthen aggregate demand, generate employment, and boost other sectors. To further enhance capital expenditure, the Centre has announced incentives for states in the form of long-term interest-free loans and capex-linked additional borrowing provisions.

Revenue expenditure of the Union Government was reduced from 15.6% of GDP in FY21 to 13.5% of GDP in FY22 Provisional Actual (PA). This reduction was primarily due to a decrease in subsidy expenditure. However, around 94.7% of the budgeted expenditure on subsidies has been utilized from April to November 2022 due to geopolitical conflicts leading to higher international prices for food, fertilizer, and fuel. Interest payments as a proportion of receipts increased post-pandemic but are expected to decrease with buoyant revenues, aggressive asset monetization, efficiency gains, and privatization.

The combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (GFD) of the States, which increased to 4.1% of GDP in FY21, was reduced to 2.8% in FY22 PA. The capital outlay of states grew by 31.7% in FY22 PA, supported by strong revenue buoyancy and central government support, including GST compensation payments and interest-free loans.

Considering the Union Government's fiscal strategy described in the passage, which of the following scenarios would likely pose the greatest challenge to maintaining the planned capital expenditure growth and fiscal deficit reduction?

1
A significant drop in global commodity prices leading to reduced subsidy requirements.
2
A rapid increase in private sector investment due to improved corporate balance sheets.
3
 An unexpected surge in global interest rates resulting in higher costs for servicing existing public debt.
4
A stable and high GST collection rate due to effective tax enforcement measures.

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