Comprehension Passage

Directions: Read the following text and answer the questions that follow.

Human decision-making is being influenced profoundly by modern mathematics, and several particular mathematical subjects have been created primarily to assist in arriving at good decisions. Many aspects involved in arriving at a decision are, of course, nonquantitative in nature. These may relate to history, past experience, instinct, judgment, morality, and so forth. As a consequence, one often refers to decision-making as an art. On the other hand, many ingredients in contemporary decision making are mathematical in nature, and one can also view this activity as a science.

A decision-maker will begin by listing the options over which he or she has some control and the likely outcomes resulting from these choices. The person may attempt to identify all relevant variables and the relationships among them and may associate quantitative measures when possible. Moreover, the decision-maker must clarify his or her own values, identify desired goals, and spell out explicitly and limiting resources or social constraints. One then seeks the best possible result obtainable.

The situation is typically confounded by a variety of different uncertainties involving data and forecasting that typically cannot be completely resolved in advance. The effect that other decision-makers may have on the outcome, and the best responses to their moves, should be predetermined. Various ethical concerns such as fairness may well need consideration, and ways to ascertain group opinions may be necessary. Finally, decision-makers must study the social and political context in which the decision will be implemented.

Which step is inevitable in the process of decision-making?

1
Recognizing the factors affecting the process
2
Thinking of the end product one would wish to achieve
3
Using quantitative measures
4
Forecasting results in advance

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