Marie is getting married tomorrow, at an outdoor ceremony in the desert. In recent years. It has rained only 5 days each year. Unfortunately, the weatherman has predicted rain for tomorrow.

When it actually rains, the weatherman correctly forecasts rain 90 percent of the time. When it doesn’t rain, he incorrectly forecasts rain 10 percent of the time.

The probability that it will rain on the day of Marie’s wedding is 

1
0.567
2
0.113
3
0.332
4
0.732

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