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Annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell to 5.88 percent in November, from the previous month's 6.77 percent and below the RBI 6 per cent upper tolerance limit for the first time since December, 2021. The index of industrial production (IIP) contracted 4 percent year-on-year in October, led by manufacturing (minus 5.6 percent) and also the sub-sectors that are proxies for consumption and investment activity. Consumer durables (minus 15.3 percent ), non-durables (minus 13.4 percent)and capital goods minus 2.3 percent). Clearly. the pent-up demand that fueled consumption spending post the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions has ebbed. Nor are there signs of a fresh investment cycle even as exports-which were doing well til September- have entered negative territory on the back of a global slowdown.

That said the evidence on growth slowing is more compelling than on inflation moderating The latter's decline in November had mainly to do with food, which registered a steep dip to 4.67 percent from 7.01 percent in October. That, in turn, was courtesy of vegetables and fruits These recorded inflation of minus 8.08 percent and 2.62 percent, basically reflecting a seasonal trend: Winter is when supply of fresh produce, from tomatoes to cole crops) (e.g Cauliflower, cabbage, broccoili,etc) and leafy greens, turns plentiful and affordable.